EUR/USD is trading around 1.1825 within the downtrend channel formed since January 27, challenging the resistance of the downtrend channel.

However, we note that around the 5/8 Murray, the 21 SMA and the upper band of the bearish channel converge, which is likely to act as a strong barrier for the euro, and it could resume its bearish cycle.

If, in the coming hours, the euro challenges the strong resistance at 1.1850 and manages to consolidate above the 21 SMA, this could be seen as a clear signal to buy with targets at 1.1962 and at the 7/8 Murray around 1.2085.

If the euro encounters strong rejection below the 5/8 Murray, it will be seen as an opportunity to take short positions with targets at the 4/8 Murray located at 1.1718 and finally at the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1650.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, although the bullish strength looks weak, so the euro is likely to resume its decline as long as EUR/USD trades below 1.1850.

Our outlook for the euro remains bearish, so we can sell at current price levels or around 1.1850. Above this zone, our strategy would be invalidated, and we could expect the price to continue making higher highs.