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Bitcoin and Ethereum remain on pause before... another leg up? Or a correction? Notably, the two most important recent events for the crypto world were arguably negative rather than positive. Central banks (notably the Federal Reserve) have begun tightening monetary policy, which increases demand for safe assets such as bank deposits and government bonds. Although global demand for Treasuries has softened, yields have risen — meaning investors could restore demand for those securities in the future if governments act. So far Washington's answer has been Treasury buybacks, intended to reduce supply and arrest rising yields. However, since the Treasury announced buybacks, 30-year yields have risen another 6% and 10-year yields some 12%...
Meanwhile, the largest public corporate crypto holder, Strategy, bought another $28.7 million worth of Bitcoin. The new management has not abandoned the ideas of former CEO Michael Saylor, while remaining willing to sell Bitcoin if necessary. Interestingly, the company continues to buy "digital gold" at any price — even at current peaks. In other words, Strategy acts as a long-term investor and expects the global rise of the leading cryptocurrency to go on. That multi-year approach yielded only modest returns over six years; in essence, Strategy has been building a decades-long portfolio.
At the same time, crypto skeptic Peter Schiff warned that Strategy may soon lose the ability to keep buying Bitcoin. He argues that the tender offer to repurchase preferred shares cut off a source of funds the company used to acquire Bitcoin. Now Strategy can buy only by issuing common shares. Official filings confirm Schiff's view — since May Strategy has been buying Bitcoin funded only by common-share issuance. Remember also that if Bitcoin falls, Strategy's shares can slump again and the company may be forced to sell BTC to continue paying dividends or to fund buybacks aimed at lifting its stock price. Thus, the company's fate and its crypto reserves are now roughly 90% tied to the price of the flagship coin.
Bitcoin shows all the signs of the start of a new bull trend. Such trends often begin with a pump that has no clear, concrete reasons. The Fed has not started cutting rates, and the Clarity Act was not passed. In the near term, on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may be in decline, since a bearish FVG is currently capping bulls. Traders should note the current breakout beyond the daily consolidation channel may be a deviation — yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could head for the $70,800 area. We believe short positions will be more relevant in the near term.
On the daily timeframe, the technical picture for Ethereum changed dramatically in just a few days. Ethereum now looks toward a new uptrend. However, traders should base decisions on the weekly chart, where Ethereum is aimed at $4,800 — the upper band of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the first bearish FVG did not produce a strong price reaction, but the next FVG together with a similar pattern on Bitcoin could trigger a notable drop in Ethereum. A reaction to a local bearish FVG could already appear on the 4-hour chart today. Therefore, we expect declines in both cryptocurrencies.
CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop-Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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