Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro:

The price at 1.1761 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. The second test at 1.1761 led to the implementation of Scenario #2 for buying, but the pair did not rise, resulting in a loss.

A sharp increase in demand for the dollar followed immediately after the United States conducted a series of retaliatory strikes on Iranian military infrastructure. Striking Iranian military targets not only exacerbates political instability in the region but also creates uncertainty regarding the further actions of central banks. Prolonged geopolitical tension and potential retaliatory actions from Iran may generate renewed demand for the US dollar, further strengthening its position against the euro.

Today, the focus will primarily be on data coming from Germany. Investors will closely analyze industrial production figures, which will shed light on the state of the country's manufacturing sector and its potential for economic development. Equally significant are the data on Germany's trade balance, which shows the difference between export and import volumes. Additionally, a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled for today. Statements from the ECB head invariably attract keen interest from market participants, as they may offer insights into the future direction of monetary policy. Any mentions related to inflation levels, economic growth rates in the Eurozone, and potential measures to support the economy amid the new energy crisis will be particularly important.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching a price around 1.1748 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1772. At the point of 1.1772, I intend to exit the market and sell immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be anticipated after good news is released. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1731 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposing levels of 1.1748 and 1.1772 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1731 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1702, at which I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1748 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposing levels of 1.1731 and 1.1702 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.