Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 156.43 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell dollars.

The yen appreciated against the dollar after Stephen Miran, a member of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve, said yesterday that US interest rates should be much lower than they are now. Although his statement was widely expected, along with Trump's remarks on the need to stimulate the US economy, it nonetheless prompted some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Today, a sharp increase in machinery orders in Japan supported the yen's strengthening against the dollar. Economic indicators published by the Tokyo Bureau of Statistics showed an unexpected rise of 25.3% compared to the previous month—this is the most significant jump since the beginning of the year. Export-oriented manufacturers, particularly in the machinery and electronics sectors, increased their purchases, signaling a recovery in global supply chains. This may be related to the reduced impact of trade tariffs from the US and rising demand from Asia and Europe, where companies are diversifying their supplies to reduce dependence on American sources.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the realization of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 155.48 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.81 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 155.81, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.25 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposing levels of 155.48 and 155.81 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the 155.25 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.85, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.48 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease towards the opposing levels of 155.25 and 154.85 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.