Trade breakdown and trading tips for the European currency

The test of the 1.1791 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of this price took place when MACD was in the oversold area, which allowed Buy Scenario No. 2 for the euro to be implemented. As a result, the pair rose by only 10 points.

Fresh disappointing figures showing a 1.7% drop in German industrial production in December restrained the euro's growth in the first half of the day. The lack of encouraging news from the leading economy of the eurozone is putting pressure on the single European currency, forcing investors to act cautiously.

Further financial activity during the day will largely be driven by the release of important statistical data reflecting consumer confidence, their propensity to spend, and inflation expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will provide insight into how Americans feel about the current economic situation and their own financial prospects. A rise in the index may indicate increased confidence, while a decline would point to growing concerns. Inflation expectations will also play a certain role in dollar volatility. Data reflecting consumers' expectations regarding price growth are of particular importance.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1806 level (green line on the chart), with a growth target at the 1.1829 level. At 1.1829, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry point. A strong euro rally should be expected only after weak economic data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1791 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1806 and 1.1829 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1791 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1762 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong economic data.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1806 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1791 and 1.1762 can be expected.

What's on the chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to focus on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.