The crypto market is feverish again: on Monday, Bitcoin sharply pulled back to $90,600 after a recent rally and a brief test of $97,800 midweek. Investors and analysts worldwide are debating whether the 21% bounce from November marks the start of a true trend reversal or is a classic "dead" rally inside a prolonged bear market.

The flagship cryptocurrency is still 36% below its all?time high of $126,080 recorded in October 2025. The timing of the pullback amid tense geopolitics — notably renewed tariff threats from President Trump toward the EU and NATO members — has added extra nervousness to the market.

Analytical firm CryptoQuant says the recent Bitcoin action dangerously echoes the 2022 bear?market scenario. In its January 17 report, the firm noted: "The 21% bounce from Nov. 21 followed a 19% decline, with the bear market confirmed by a breach of the 365?day moving average. That pattern previously led to a failed recovery in 2022."

CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno, told MarketWatch Bitcoin faces a critical threshold — the 365?day moving average (now around $101,000). Past attempts to reclaim that key technical level ended with fresh local lows.

Moreno warns the downtrend could extend into 2026, with a potential market "bottom" in the $56,000–$60,000 range. Trader Peter Brandt shares a similar view, forecasting drops to $58,000–$62,000.

Not all analysts agree with the pessimists. Analyst Jin argues the market has materially changed since 2022: "The main difference now is the shift from high?risk retail trades to long?term institutional investments."

A vivid sign of the new era is that public companies now control more than 1.3 million BTC. In addition, spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 have accumulated about $130 billion in assets under management.

Exchanges now hold noticeably fewer Bitcoins available for quick sale — coins on exchanges have fallen from over 3 million in 2022 to under 2.8 million today, which reduces selling pressure. Liquidity in US markets is also rising: the relevant liquidity index has broken key descending levels, a sharp contrast with the tight monetary policy environment two years ago.

Flows into Bitcoin ETFs remain volatile: from January 12–16 funds recorded inflows of $1.42 billion, while the first week of 2026 saw outflows of $681 million. Still, the iShares Bitcoin Trust remains the confident leader in inflows even during broad waves of redemptions.

Ancient wallets "wake up" Alongside elevated volatility, "Satoshi?era" wallets have begun to stir. On Monday, one of the oldest wallets — dormant for more than 13 years — moved its entire balance (909.38 BTC, worth roughly $84.6 million) to a new address. The transfer was tracked by Whale Alert and analytics firms Arkham Intelligence and Lookonchain.

Notably, this wallet accumulated BTC in 2012–2013 at prices from $7 to $250 per coin, implying a current profit of about 13,900%. The owner's identity and motives remain unknown, but such transfers are traditionally viewed by traders and analysts as possible signals of profit?taking by early adopters.

This is not the first case: in July 2025, a Satoshi?era investor sold more than 80,000 BTC through Galaxy Digital, realizing around $9 billion — the largest known profit taking by an early holder.

Earlier this month another miner moved 2,000 BTC (about $181 million) to Coinbase, the largest coin movement since late 2024. CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno notes that after a peak in long?term holder selling at the end of 2025, the volume of coins being dumped by these holders has fallen significantly in January 2026.

What does this mean for market participants? Volatility, the awakening of large old holders, unstable ETF flows and uncertainty around crucial technical levels create both risks and opportunities.

For medium?term traders it makes sense to watch the 365?day moving average (~$101,000) closely — a rebound or breakdown at that level and the behavior of large wallets could determine the trend's direction.

In the event of another selling wave, a reasonable tactic is short?term shorts or a staged accumulation strategy around a potential bottom ($56,000–$62,000). Long?term investors may view the current pullback as a cautious buying opportunity, given institutional demand and shrinking exchange supply.